By Osama Al Sharif
Libya is quickly turning into a failed state, amid Arab and
international indifference, two years after the fall of the regime of
Col. Muammar Qaddafi following foreign military intervention and a
popular uprising.
The central government is weak and ineffective and armed militias
continue to wreck havoc as they defy attempts to incorporate them into
a regular national army. There is a state of chaos and lawlessness and
the political process has come to a halt. Libyans are angry as state
and local institutions fail to perform. In the east calls for
separation are rising while there is evidence that Al-Qaeda-affiliated
groups are active in the south and west. Libya’s oil production has
been cut to half and the economy is suffering.
Last Friday’s massacre in Tripoli, where a Misrata militia opened fire
on unarmed civilians protesting against the spread of violence and
lawlessness in the capital, left at least 40 dead and scores injured.
It underlined the utter failure of the government of Prime Minister
Ali Zidane in addressing the biggest threat to the country in the
aftermath of the fall of the Qaddafi regime: The spread of armed
brigades and militias and their refusal to disband. Zidane was
abducted last month by gunmen who later released him. He accused two
lawmakers in the National General Congress as well as an official of
the country’s Counter Crime Agency of being behind his abduction. And
earlier this week it was reported that Libyan intelligence chief
General Yusuf Al-Atrash was killed and his deputy Mustafa Nah was
abducted. The news coincided with Zidane’s call on all armed militias
to leave Tripoli. The Misrata brigade had withdrawn from the capital
for now, but there are no guarantees that they would not return. Now
the US wants to train thousands of conventional troops but that could
lead to future confrontations with heavily armed militiamen with
various affiliations and loyalties.
In Benghazi local militias have distanced the oil-rich region from the
central government and oil production has dropped from 1.5 million
barrels daily to less than 600,000 barrels. Protesters have closed
export terminals and an oil black market has emerged as so-called
security guards are reported to be selling oil independently. Libya’s
oil minister claimed that such disruptions have cost the country more
than $1 billion in the past five months alone. The separatist
self-declared autonomous Cyrenaica government is trying to sell oil
independently after loyal militias took control of important export
terminals.
The political process is dead. The National General Congress is
dysfunctional and the government has been unable to engage political
parties and groups, including the Islamists, in an open dialogue.
Furthermore, the Arab League has failed to address Libya’s turmoil,
while the Europeans, who spearheaded the NATO intervention in 2011,
can only express concern over the country’s instability. The fact is
that Libya has been forgotten by the international community. The
toppling of Qaddafi was followed by chaos and the US attempts to
intervene were circumvented by the killing of the US ambassador in
Benghazi last year. It is ironic that the threat to central authority
and collapse of the state that is taking place in Libya today is also
happening rapidly in Iraq, which also witnessed foreign military
intervention. With over 300 militias combining a force of no less than
250,000, it is difficult to see how a weak and discredited government
can find a way to disband these militias and brigades and extend its
authority over various areas. The scenario for civil war in Libya is
unfolding and that would hasten separatist moves to partition the
country while allowing militants to form permanent bases in the south
and west.
The dramatic fall of Qaddafi presented a different scenario for the
future of the Libyan people. Libya is a vast country of six million
inhabitants with access to huge oil and gas deposits making it one of
the richest countries in the region. It was supposed to be a hopeful
story amid the turmoil that followed the outbreak of the Arab Spring.
But the reality is different. For decades Qaddafi had stymied the
country’s political, social and cultural development. His departure
had uncovered a myriad of problems and challenges. Today the biggest
challenge for Libyans is to preserve their country’s territorial and
demographic integrity. The alternative is a quick and unstoppable
collapse.
— Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in
Amman. Email: alsharif.osama@gmail.com – Arab News via Eurasia Review
