It is not for the first time that the dispute about the possibility of Ukraine splitting into two – the West and the East – is emerging. As it might seem, the answer to this question was given by history itself. Despite the fact that the people of Ukraine voted for different candidates and that their cultural differences are clearly visible today, the eastern part of Ukraine, which earlier belonged to the Russian Empire, and its western part, which earlier stayed under the rule of Austria-Hungary, Poland and Romania, these two parts have been living in peace in one state for 20 years now.
The way things were was to the liking of the Russian elite of the post-Soviet period, and in fact, it gave up the claims to Crimea, which in the pre-Khrushchev times never belonged to Ukraine, for the sake of stability and calm in the neighbouring country. Ukraine’s unity was not called into question by its citizens either: the nationalists living in Western Ukraine regarded the unification of the Ukrainian nation in one state – the result of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact – as a benefit, and the East Ukrainian businessmen had nothing against the words “Europe” and “independence”. Among those who did not stop to remind Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine about their differences and their alleged irreconcilability were, in the first place, the European Union (EU) and the US. During the second round of the Maidan events ( the first round was held in 2004 by the supporters of Viktor Yushchenko who wanted him to become Ukraine’s President) this confrontation reached its peak. However, before that the newspapers and radio stations of cultural Europe and the USA pictured the residents of Eastern Ukraine as not fully human persons. Once “Newsweek” even used the term, ‘homo sovieticus, which Alexander Zinoviev, a Russian philosopher, had invented for other uses. Now the European Union is feeling frightened about the success of its propaganda: as regards the West Ukrainian opposition, among those who have come to the foreground are people who in case of their
“integration” into Europe can cause it much trouble. Expert with the Kiev Centre for Political Studies and Conflictology Denis Kiryukhin says: “The ideological task of the ultras and radicals is conducting a cardinal revolution in the country and the establishment of a dictatorship on the national grounds rather than carrying out a state coup. Their ideology is aimed at the establishment of ethnocracy, with the priority of ethnic Ukrainians over all others.” Sowing seeds of discord between the Russian-speaking and the Ukrainian -speaking citizens of Ukraine is a very difficult but achievable task,
as the events of the past 10 years have shown. And the “Orange government” of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, as well as Yanukovych’s conduct to please the local nationalists added much to the discord-sowing process. Viktor Yanukovych was at least several years late with his statement about the presence of extremists in the country, which he made some time ago. The poit is that the young people who threw Molotov cocktails at the policemen and who occupied Kiev with the Nazi slogans written on their banners needed time to mature. They studied at schools and institutes – and now it is clear
why the opposition offered a fierce resistance to the reforms of Education Minister Dmitry Tabachnik. His attempts to return the Russian classical literature to the Ukrainian schools hampered the maturing of all those who are fighting nowunder the slogan “Ukraine Above All!” today, which is none other than the translation of the Nazi slogan “Deutschland uber alles”. As you might remember, during last year’s heated debates about the language law both the European Union and the USA took the side of the Ukrainian nationalists . Thus,figuratively speaking, a wedge was being driven into Ukraine,
where relative ethnic peace reigned supreme for many years, with the Ukrainian authorities turning a blind eye to it. Nationalists today are striving for absolute power all over Ukraine. They are not happy with the cabinet of ministers or even the presidential position. They are after controlling both the legislative and the executive power. To achieve this aim they are calling for new elections and trying to return the 2004 Constitution with which nationalists hope to weakenYanukovych. But there is a complication here. Ukraine is aunitarian state where almost everything is decided by officials in Kiev. So if ethnic nationalists seize absolute power in Kiev, the Russian-speaking eastern region will want to secede. Professor Valery Solovey from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations expresses his opinion: “The presidential side can try and achieve federalization of Ukraine now. Even though it is a risky affair, it can turn out beneficial. It is not only a return to the 2004 Constitution but also adding to the Constitution chapters about Ukraine as a federative state with the corresponding restriction of state authority in the regions.” In 2005, when the European Union and the US pulled out a victory at the presidential election for ViktorYushchenko, the Party of Regions already made attempts atautonomising eastern regions. They were not a success then because the Ukrainian elite and Ukrainian oligarchs in the firstplace struck a bargain to divide power and capitals. It is very doubtful whether they will be able to do the same now. Oligarchs can enjoy power only when the grassroots are relatively passive. Like ships in olden days, oligarchs can pour oil on troubled waters and in this way put out small waves around their business liners. But when the masses run into a rage no oil can save from the waves on this life ocean, and oligarchs with all their capitals and corrupt officials can be thrown on the rocks. Exactly this situation is forming now that the genie of Ukrainian nationalism let out of the bottle is impossible to be pushed back in. Summing up the results, we can say the following. At present, centrifugal forces in Ukrainian society are not strong enough. Both the western and eastern regions realise that in case of a split the east will immediately fall under EU and US sanctions and the Ukrainian west will fail to survive without eastern subsidies. Russia takes a neutral and balanced position in this conflict between Ukraine’s west and east, but still the European media accuse Russia of interfering. But centrifugal forces may receive a strong impetus from nationalists in Maidan Square, and the European Union playing with nationalists, and Yatseniuk and Klitschko trying to ride on the nationalist wave. If Ukraine falls apart it will be on their conscience. By Dmitry Babich- Eurasia Review
