Political speculations and analyzes about the Indian electoral battle are mainly revolving around the prospects of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) possible victory.
In all this hue and cry, the most important factor has somehow been overshadowed i.e. the role of regional parties in Indian elections and the formation of government. It seems that there are only three forces in the political arena, Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal. To some extent, we
can say that these three have emerged as the face of this election but it is unlikely for any of these people or the parties they represent to form a government without the support of the regional parties. The few states, where political battle is expected to be primarily between the Congress and the BJP are Assam, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In the Lok Sabha, 14 members represent Assam, Chhattisgarh (11), Gujarat (26), Haryana (10), Himachal Pradesh (4), Karnatka (28), Madhya Pradesh (29) and Rajashtan sends 25 members to the Lok Sabha. Keeping in view these statistics, the Congress and the BJP will be the primary rivals in 137 constituencies. The situation may change in states like Haryana, if the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) manages to take the lead. The same may be said about Assam, where regional parties’ representation may increase from three or be reduced to 2, 1 or even zero. Though in the outgoing Lok Sabha, Congress is in the lead from Andhra Pradesh, the Telengana issue may enhance the importance of regional parties. At present, out of 42 members from Andhra Pradesh, around 11 are members of different regional parties. Interestingly, states from where regional parties command 50 percent representation in Lok Sabha are Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh (UP) and West Bengal. Thus, in the outgoing Lok Sabha, 24 seats out of 40 from Bihar are held by regional parties, four out of six from J&K, 14 of 21 from Odisha, 30 of 39 from Tamil Nadu, 42 of 80 from UP and 22 of 42 from West Bengal. The electoral battle on 228 seats from these states is least likely to be a key battle between Congress and the BJP. If in Bihar, Janata Dal-United (JD-U) is not pulverized by the Modi hype, the same can be said about regional parties in other states. In UP, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) are key fighters, National Conference in J&K, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu while Trinamool Congress aims to extend its role beyond West Bengal following Lok Sabha polls. As a matter of fact, all regional parties do not represent around 50 percent seats from their states in Lok Sabha. At the same time, their presence is not likely to be eliminated in the coming Lok Sabha. For instance, in the outgoing Lok Sabha 19 out of 48 members from Maharashtra are from regional parties. Likewise, four of 13 from Punjab are from regional parties, six of 14 from Jharkhand and only three of 20 from Kerala are from regional parties. These states’ representation adds up to 95 in Lok Sabha. Besides, there are more than a dozen states with one, two or less than 10 members in Lok Sabha, without strong regional parties. Statistically speaking, however, strong Modimania can at most be expected to have a major impact in 137 constituencies. The possibility of regional parties retaining their position, strengthening or being only marginally affected in 228 plus seats cannot be ignored. The possibility of Modi phenomenon having an impact in states where regional parties do not have a strong presence cannot be ignored. Yet, while BJP may increase its presence from Punjab and even Jharkhand, prospects of it gaining in Kerala are negligible. Contrary to expectations, regional parties’ ranking may increase in the next Lok Sabha. This also implies that key national parties, Congress and BJP, may become more dependent than they are at present on regional parties. (Email: nilofarsuhrawardy@hotmail.com) By Nilofar Suhrawardy- Eurasia Review
