Rajaram Panda and IPRISCampaign officially kicked off on July 4 for elections to Japan’s Upper House of the Diet on July 21. A total of 367 candidates are schedule to run for half of the total 242 seats for which elections will be held. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), headed by Shinzo Abe, and its junior coalition partner, New Komeito, together hold 59 seats in the Upper House that will not be contested on July 21. Between them, they will need to win 70 seats out of 121 up for grabs to achieve a majority of seats in the Upper House and form a coalition government.
Prior to the forthcoming elections on July 21, elections were held for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly on June 23, and the LDP took majority control of the house from the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Not a single candidate from Abe’s ruling LDP lost in the Tokyo area, while the biggest national opposition party lost further ground, even falling behind the Communists in many districts. Abe’s political dominance could bring an end to Japan’s stretch of political instability. Still, the country’s economic future remains shaky. The lack of any meaningful op- position to the LDP can only bode ill for the country’s longer-term prospects as in a democracy opposition plays the critical role of a balancer.
This landslide victory will give the LDP a boost for the July 21 date when voters are expected to cast judgment on Abe’s handling of the seven-month-old government.
The LDP and its junior partner in the national Diet, New Komeito, succeeded in getting all their candidates – 59 from LDP and 23 from New Komeito – elected. Now they control the 127-seat Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. The DPJ, which used to control the Assembly, won only 15 seats and tumbled to fourth position. It had won 43 seats in the 2009 election. To some extent, the LDP benefitted from the DPJ’s unpopularity.
The contest was expected to focus on a mix of fiscal stimulus, radical monetary easing, and other measures aimed at pulling Japan out of chronic deflation. His re- forms being dubbed as “Abenomics”, Abe had to win the Tokyo Assembly elections “at any cost” as it would set the tone for the Upper House elections. Now the Tokyo election results are injecting momentum into the governing coalition’s campaign for the July 21 elections.
The LDP drubbing in the 2009 Tokyo elections, which paved the way for the DPJ to take the reins of the nation for the first time, is still fresh in the memory of many in the party, and it now looks prepared to avoid a repeat of such an embarrassing experience.
Though the Tokyo Assembly results are indicative of the likely outcome of the July elections, the LDP must answer some tricky questions on voters’ minds. Notwithstanding the much-hyped Abenomics that has restored Japan to positive growth, ordinary citizens and local economies are yet to reap the fruits of Abe’s reforms. In particular, rural area peoples are wary of Abe’s decision for Japan to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact. The anti-nuclear lobbyists also disapprove of the Abe administration’s decision to restart of nuclear power plants given safety procedures are complete. They also point to the idea of weakening the constitutional procedure designed to prevent imprudent constitutional changes.
If the LDP secures control of the Upper House in July, it will ease the current legislative gridlock and give Abe free rein to push through the painful reforms that Japan desperately needs. However, detractors warn that with a majority in both houses, Abe will take his eye off the economy and push a conservative social agenda, for which he was known before the election, that may include the possible rewriting of Japan’s wartime history, and the Constitution. Critics say this would risk further irritating Japan’s inflamed ties with China and South Korea. The present analysis takes into consideration the domestic factors influencing the outcome of the elections and does not cover foreign affairs in a major way.
Background: Japan’s Upper House of the Diet is known as the House of Councilors. Councilors serve a six-year term in a staggered cycle that puts half of the total 242 seats up for election every three years. Given that the House of Councilors cannot be dissolved, there can be no snap elections, which means elected members are guaranteed a full six-year term.
Why is the election scheduled for July 21 important for Japan’s future? Japan’s Upper House has become, since the introduction of proportional representation to the Lower House or the House of Representatives, increasingly powerful within the bicameral legislature. The Low- er House could traditionally override most votes made by the Upper House, provided they got a two-thirds majority of members present. But since the switch to proportional representation, the Upper House has gained a lot more power to block legislation, with the government failing to gain the vital two-thirds threshold time and again. The Postal Privatization Act of 2009 was a perfect example of the newfound political muscle of the Councilors.
Up to 73 of the available 121 Councilor seats, at each triennial vote are to be filled by the 47 prefectural, electoral district winners and the other 48 fall under the nationwide party list system that uses proportional representation. This means that voters cast two votes. Unlike in the Lower House, Upper House candidates cannot run in the proportional representation system and the electoral district system at the same time. Seats are granted to parties based on the number of votes they received as per the candidates on their lists or their names. They are then given to candidates depending on the amount of votes obtained under party names.
If the ruling bloc wins 129 seats, it will secure all of the Upper House’s top posts on standing committees as well as half of the committee posts. At present the LDP and New Komeito hold a majority in the more powerful Lower House, while the Upper House is controlled by the opposition. The LDP has decided to field 80 candidates, while New Komeito will officially endorse 11 candidates. The opposition DPJ, still reeling from its devastating rout in the Lower House poll in December 2012 and the drubbing in Tokyo Assembly polls on June 23, has so far approved 54 to run on its ticket. The Nippon Ishin no Kai, Japan Restoration Party, led by embattled Osaka Mayor Hashimoto Toru and former Tokyo Governor Ishihara Shintaro, will field 41 candidates, while Your Party, the Japan Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party, will back 23, 51 and eight candidates, respectively.
Support Base for the LDP: The ruling LDP has an edge over its rival DPJ, if survey results are to be believed. According to a nationwide telephone survey conducted by Kyodo on June 23, the LDP enjoys the highest support rating, leaving the DPJ far behind. The survey found that 28.8% of the respondents intend to vote for the LDP in the proportional representation section, against only 8.2% for the DPJ. The New Komeito drew 6% support, followed by 4.8% for the Japan Restoration party, 3.9% for Your Party, 3.2% for the Japanese Communist Party, 0.6% for the Social Democratic Party, 0.2% for Kokumin no Seikatsu Daiichi (People’s Life Party), and 0.1% apiece for New Party Daichi and Green Wind.
However, the outcome is far from certain, because 37.7% of the respondents said they have not decided who to vote for. Politics in Japan has become extremely volatile and the media poll results can be a general guide, at best. This is because the support rate for the Abe’s cabinet has declined to 65.6% from the 68% recorded from June 1 to 2, while its disapproval rate has jumped to 23.6% from 16.3%. The Kyodo survey drew responses from 1,224 eligible voters, with 56.4% saying they want the LDP- New Komeito ruling coalition to gain a majority in the Upper House, and 27.9% saying they do not. The survey also found that 35.4% of the public will scrutinize the politicians’ economic proposals, especially on jobs, for clues on how to vote. While 28.3% said they will examine social security-related policies, in particular pension and health care measures, 8.9% mentioned the consumption tax hike and 7.7% brought up plans to amend the Constitution. Worthy of note was 50.4% expressed support and 33.5% expressed opposition to the issue of revising the Constitution.
– Eurasia Review
