The American Department of Justice’s (DOJ) investigation led by Robert Mueller into possible collusion with the Kremlin by Donald Trump in 2016 has an uncertain outlook. Like President Clinton before him, however, the President confronts dangers unrelated to the Special Prosecutor’s initial remit. But unlike Clinton, who faced only humiliation and the risk of impeachment, the dangers posed for Trump are far more consequential personally, and even existential for the firm he inherited.
In the age-old DOJ pattern, the Special Prosecutor has been pursuing information on possible Russian collusion by investigating the backgrounds of Trump intimates. Campaign manager Paul Manafort has been revealed as both a money launderer and tax evader, for instance. And Michael Cohen has pled guilty to past illicit behaviour, including conspiring with then-candidate Trump to violate election finance laws. The DOJ investigation has expanded and may discover other past criminal business practices and behaviour such as bank fraud involving President Trump’s six bankruptcies. His organisation may be implicated in money laundering involving the sale of high-end real estate to Russians and others proffering cash and checks of dubious provenance over the past three decades. And the New York state Attorney General is investigating fraud by Trump and his children involving a family foundation.
While the President may be able to negotiate a federal pardon at some point, he will remain exposed to criminal statutes in places such as New York and New Jersey.
In an abundance of caution, the President should consider mimicking prudent steps taken by other billionaires and their families facing similar uncertainty and risk posed by what they doubtlessly view as the possibility of arbitrary state sanctions.
For example, a rather remarkable number of Russian (and Chinese) billionaires have shown acute sensitivity to the dangers to purse and person posed by the risk of arbitrary rule of law at home. They have proven to be highly covetous of what Yu Jie at the London School of Economics describes as Europe’s “political certainty, institutional constraints and the fundamental rule of law.” Indeed, the appeal is broader than the rule of law as noted by Jonathan Eyal, international director at the Royal United Services Institute: “The last thing that the oligarchs appreciate is being put on lists that make it very difficult for them to travel abroad, buy property abroad, have their girlfriends abroad or send their children for education abroad, all the things that makes them enjoy the finer things in life.”
An example is the Russian oligarch German Khan, his standing with Putin affirmed by his bank being the largest surviving non-government bank in Russia. Like most other Putin intimates, Khan has stashed cash and children in Europe, safely away from the vicissitudes of dictatorial rule at home: Khan’s daughter lives in London with her Dutch husband. And he doubtlessly views London as his in extremis bolt-hole. In fact, European homes and educations are de rigueur for the children of Putin’s inner circle. Reuters reports that a multimillion dollar beachfront home in Biarritz is owned by Putin’s son-in-law Kirill Shamalov. Putin’s Vice-Premier Alexander Khloponin’s daughter lived in London. His Foreign Secretary Sergei Lavrov’s only daughter lived for 17 years in the west, attending Columbia University and the London School of Economics. Putin’s pit-bull press secretary Dimtri Peskov’s three children and divorced wife live luxuriously on Avenue Foch in Paris; one daughter graduated from the posh Ecole de Roches boarding school there. Putin crony and former Russian railway oligarch Vladimir Yakunin’s children and grandchildren live in Switzerland and his son lives in a $5.5 million London mansion.
Similarly, a who’s who of Putin parliamentary loyalists who have stashed family in the West according to the (Guardian) Observer: First Vice-Speaker of the Russian Parliament Alexander Zhukov’s son studied in London. Member of Parliament Elena Mizoulina’s son lives in Belgium. MP Petr Tolstoy’s daughter attended college in America. MP Alexander Remezkov’s sons studied in the US and UK and his daughter lives in Vienna. MP Irina Rodnina’s daughter lives in Washington, DC. And MP Vyacheslav Fetisov’s daughter has spent her entire life in the US.
Rather bizarrely, even those members of Putin’s inner circle who are most ferociously critical of democratic values and institutions have tight familial attachments in the West. Three of MP Sergey Zheleznyak’s daughters attended UK and Swiss colleges, one of whom lives with her Scottish husband in Britain. And outspoken critic of America MP Vyacheslav Nikonov’s son is a US citizen.
In contrast, the flow of westerners toward the east to Moscow is tiny, mostly whistle-blowers/spies like Edward Snowden. But at a minimum, Donald Trump needs to consider purchasing a waterfront villa in Sochi and an apartment on Stoleshnikov. It’s not Avenue Foch for sure, but a bolt-hole there would be on Moscow’s most expensive street.
Oh, and Donald Trump, Jr., in particular, might want to begin Russian lessons. Just in case.
About George Tyler
George Tyler began his career working in the United States Congress as an economic adviser to Senators Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota and Lloyd M. Bentsen of Texas and as Senior Economist on the Congressional Joint Economic Committee. Appointed by President Clinton as a Deputy Treasury Assistant Secretary in 1993, George worked closely with international financial institutions and in 1995 became a senior official at the World Bank. George is the author of ‘What Went Wrong: How the 1% Hijacked the American Middle Class… And What Other Nations Got Right.’
source: Social Europe
