By Zaher MahruqiIt is not clear who is more happily nervous to watch what is going on in Syria, Egypt and Lebanon; is it the Americans, the Israelis, The Sunni Arabs, or the Shia world? That will all depend on the events of the next few months but the following are the most likely scenarios.Hezbollah intervention in Syria might come across as reckless and maybe even suicidal for the group but in reality Hezbollah had no choice but to get involved. The risk was always to add more enemies its arch enemy Israel and that is the part that Israel enjoys the most. But allowing Bashar’s government to fall was just another route to Hezbollah’s eventual weakening; there is simply no other reliable route for resupplying.
Now that Hezbollah is involved and Lebanon is gradually being pulled into the Syrian conflict and already the bloodshed is spilling into its territories, anyone who wished to see the Shia group breaking apart must be more optimistic of that outcome than ever before.
Though it is doubtful that they have perpetrated this, it appears to be the intentions of Israel and the US all along; to see Hezbollah somehow self destruct at the same time Bashar’s Syria falls.
When Pakistani Taliban announces intervening in the Arab world for the first time ever without any resistance from any party, there remains no doubt that Israel, the US and the Sunni Arabs are complicit in the whole affair. To their credit no one denies it and their support has been in the open. The only difference now is that Lebanon is becoming widely more involved; a fact that might have caught all forces by surprise.
If Sunni groups manage to take the war into the Lebanese territory, all hell will break loose. But the breaking of Hezbollah or its weakening through the multiplication of its enemies and the eventual fall of Shiites government in Syria are by no means guaranteeing an outcome so desired by Israel.
The fall or weakening of Hezbollah via Syria can likely bring about a protracted civil war in which Sunni Muslims will have the upper hand in Lebanon given that Sunni fighters are embarking upon the area from everywhere.
To add insult to injury, the overtaking of Syria by the majority Sunnis would not be smooth as pro Sharia groups within Syria would wish to have their say there. That is another potential serious and protracted civil war in the region.
The Shias of Syria will be pinned between the Jihadist groups and any Sunni government that will be imposed. Bashar’s police state would only be replaced by another police state; this time it would be a police state by necessity.
The Syrian government might be having the upper hand since the Qusayr victory but the influx of Sunni Jihadists is the condition that the Europeans, the Israelis and the Americans are counting on as the catalysts for the downfall of Mr. Assad. If it doesn’t fall in due time, Arab money and Western weapons would definitely start pouring into Syria to whoever is fighting against the Syrian army. But if the US believes that after supplying the weapons they will be able to drone them out of existence, all they need to do is revisit their performance in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Not the US, not the EU, nor the Saudis, the Qataris and of course the Israelis would allow to pass this opportunity to destroy both Hezbollah and Bashar’s Syria and weaken Iran in the process.
It remains to be seen how Russia reacts. Will they have the will and the financial muscle for an elongated showoff? How would the Iranians react to this seemingly game-changing predicament?
Even if the Russians continue to receive Chinese financial support, Bashar cannot possibly rule for long a Syria where so much blood has been spilled.
As for Israel, if Hezbollah stands its ground and crosses this bleak juncture, it is certain that the Hezbollah on the other side of this face off won’t be as strong and it is very likely that the Jewish state will find a pretext at an attempt to weaken the group even further.
However, If Syria becomes a Sunni controlled territory and Hezbollah is no longer as powerful in Lebanon, then there are no guarantees that Syria won’t be a transit area for weapons bound to Sunnis in Lebanon. In which case, Israel’s challenges are back to square one. Jihadists are Jihadists, be them Shia or sunni, Israel is an eternal enemy.
In Egypt where Mr. Sisi has just appointed himself as deputy prime minister, it appears that the Egyptian army is confident that they can drive the Muslim brotherhood back under the rugs. That too is a bad gamble if not seriously stupid. If the Muslim brotherhood refuses to participate in politics, definitely there would be a breakaway group that will pursue armed existence.
Iraq, well no need to say anything about Iraq!
Predictably, the long time prediction political analyst loved to make, the potential for regional conflict, is more a reality now than ever. If Iran loses Hezbollah and Syria, Iran becomes very unpredictable as the matter for the Persian country becomes that of survival. In which case, you have two arch enemies who are both driven by survival instincts.
Iran has always avoided elevating its animosity to Saudi Arabia and some other Persian Gulf states to armed confrontations but a scenario where it is denied its proxy brigade in Hezbollah and its only reliable and loyal ally in Syria, they would certainly attempt at revenge against those they deem responsible.
The Ayatollahs of Iran have threatened the US in the past that they could unleash a million Bin Laden if need be and they have demonstrated that in their intercontinental attacks against Israeli interests. Let’s just hope that they don’t employ those sorts of tactics to the Gulf as the Gulf has never ever been taken to those levels of confrontations and as such the outcome could be disastrous.
– Eurasia Review
