Jelena Kiselova
The 19th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 9th Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) begin today (11th November) in Warsaw, Poland. Climate change is characterised by a high degree of issue complexity and interest diversity. The reality of climate change is usually addressed within a challenging political context, characterised by an agenda that is mainly focussed on long term mitigation and financing issues. Even though the challenge of climate change can only be successfully addressed if there is globally concerted management and solidarity; countries continue to look after their own interests and protect domestic priorities.In spite of all the difficulties and challenges, COP 18 in Doha last year delivered a number of important milestones in the UN climate negotiation process. A key achievement of COP 18 was the agreement reached by more than 190 countries on the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, extending key elements of the Protocol to 2020. This agreement is yet to come into force, and swift ratification of the second commitment period will be encouraged at COP 19.
Important progress was also made on advancing the Durban process. The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP), adopted at COP 17 in 2011, calls for a new agreement under the UNFCCC to be reached by 2015 and to be implemented from 2020. Under this agreement, developing countries, as well as developed countries, will share the responsibility of reducing greenhouse gas emissions (though the respective obligations may differ in ambition and character across the two groups). One of the key weaknesses of the Kyoto Protocol was the assignment of commitments only to developed countries. While this decision had greater relevance at the time, given the rapidly rising emissions in the larger developing countries and emerging economies, such an agreement is unlikely to succeed in mitigation of climate change in the long-term.
The indicators for success at COP 19 are not as obvious as for last year’s climate conference in Doha, as there are no final deadlines or vital decisions to be made this year. Consequently, COP 19 is a time to move from design and discussion towards to taking real action to agree on legal texts with actual commitments.
This year, Parties will focus on three main issues: laying the foundations for a future global climate deal to be agreed at COP 21 Paris in 2015; climate finance – the operationalisation of the Green Climate Fund and encouraging nations to deliver on the $100 billion per year by 2020 that they pledged in Copenhagen in 2009; and loss and damage – building on the decision made last year to consider approaches and mechanisms to address loss and damage associated with climate change impacts in developing countries.
The main obstacle to progress at COP 19 is seen to be disagreement over whether the inherited division between developed countries and developing countries should be abandoned in the new agreement. A number of developing countries (especially least developed countries) and the European Union are pushing for more ambitions and legally binding international treaties, while most major economies (including the United States, China and India) prefer a much more ‘flexible’ agreement with a more loosely defined legal basis. Equity has always been at the heart of the negotiations, but has not as yet found any concrete application in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol.
To maximise the chances of adopting an ambitious commitment in 2015, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres, stated that ‘2014 needs to be the year in which every government, every organisation, every business, and every individual needs to ask themselves, “How am I going to contribute to solving climate?”’, and there is no doubt that the outcome from Warsaw will influence the answers we will get.
(Source: Outreach magazine. Jelena Kiselova is British Council climate champion, COP 18 and COP 19 delegate)
