He who rejects change is the architect of decay, said former UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) astounding victory in the just concluded assembly elections should be seen as a sign of a vibrant Indian democracy in full bloom. However, one should also pause and analyze the reasons behind Congress’ electoral debacle and ascertain whether this complete rout was the result of the so-called Narendra Modi magic People who are ecstatic over a BJP victory and confident about Modi’s ascendancy to throne in 2014 must be reminded that politics is the art of possibilities. Between now and May 2014, when the parliamentary poll is scheduled, there will be lot of ups and downs in the Indian political arena. Let us not forget that even “a week is a long time in politics.” Who knows, the fate of the Congress might change altogether with introduction of new ideas and a charismatic face. Surely, the grand old party of Indian politics is in dire need of an image makeover and an equally powerful script to confront the slide. Indeed, a vacillating Congress leadership — including Rahul Gandhi, who virtually groped in the dark — caused a massive damage to the party’s electoral prospect by failing to read the pulse of the nation. It is time for the Congress to unleash its most potent weapon Priyanka Gandhi to stem the rot. The people of India had voted Indira Gandhi back into power less than three years after overwhelmingly rejecting her dictatorial leadership during the emergency of the 1970s. There certainly is no reason why the Congress cannot bounce back with an assertive and decisive Priyanka leading from the front. Priyanka, 41, despite the Indian politics’ son-in-law syndrome, remains the best bet for a tottering Congress and 149.36 million young voters. She is youthful, passionate and sympathetic toward social issues and above all is not an intrinsic part of the routine political mudslinging that this nation has become used to these days. Indian women will find much needed solace in Priyanka and it will be easier for the masses to relate with her just like her grandmother Indira. An increasingly intolerant India, where women are feeling unsafe every moment, will surely gain from Priyanka than a sexagenarian Modi. Moreover, the Congress needs a leader capable of retrieving the party’s lost glory given the fact that it has, over the years, forfeited its character of a political outfit representing a grand social coalition. Rahul Gandhi’s technocrat-like working style has only exacerbated the party’s discomfort. The BJP, on the other hand, must not take this election verdict as a gate-pass to power in 2014. The results of the four states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi cannot be extrapolated to predict the outcome of next summers’ parliamentary election because these provinces are in no way pan-India representative models. Moreover, the minority vote share in the four states, with 72 parliamentary seats, is no more than 10 percent. Modi might be attracting some section of the masses with his eloquent rhetoric but
cold electoral arithmetic does not favor him or his party. Those who are predicting a near 180 seats for the BJP seems to be oblivious of the fact that the party’s base is confined to the Hindi heartland and they are not expected to give a fight in more than 350 parliamentary seats out of a total of 543. Even if one is to presume that the BJP will gain from states like Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Odhisa, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Delhi, West Bengal and Jammu & Kashmir from where they could not fetch a single representative last time around, they cannot hope to get a working majority. In fact, the ground reality is — Modi continues to be a pariah for the minority community and will not receive en-masse support from the Hindus either. Rather, Muslims hold the key to the 2014 general election outcome as the fate of approximately 220 parliamentary seats depends on their voting pattern. Moreover, the BJP has no base in large swath of south and east of India while the province of Uttar Pradesh, which sends maximum number of lawmakers to the Parliament, will be a divided game with multiple contenders in the fray. Adding to the woe, their existing allies are also on a weak footing. After Balasaheb Thackeray’s demise and the fratricidal split over leadership issue, the hard-line Shiv Sena’s vote share is bound to fall drastically. In Punjab the Badals of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) may not do well due to public disenchantment. Besides, when Modi’s government — citing Bombay Tenancy and Agricultural Lands Act, 1948 —
ordered 500 odd Sikh families settled in Gujarat to sell their land and return to Punjab since they were not of Gujarati origin, Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal remained mute. Hence, Modi’s companionship will certainly have a harmful effect on the SAD’s poll prospect in 2014. Then, prospective allies like Jayalalitha, Mamata Banerjee, Chandra Babu Naidus Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy, Naveen Patnaik, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati and other regional political satraps will play their cards close to the chest due to a combination of personal ambition and significant minority vote share in respective political fiefdom. Therefore, everything is not yet lost for the Congress and the BJP cannot be complacent either because their restricted national outreach gives enough scope to alternative forces like Aam Admi Party (AAP) and others to fill the political vacuum. This article appeared at Arab News and is reprinted with permission.-By Seema Sengupta Eurasia Review
