Dhaka, July 22 – Leading water expert Professor Dr Ainun Nishat Wednesday said the timing of the ongoing floods spared the country from greater damages particularly in terms of crop losses despite inflated waters in major rivers, inundating vast areas in upstream and central regions.“The flood damage cannot be measured considering water level, the timing of the deluge is more important . . . floods in April or September cause huge havoc,” he told BSS in an exclusive interview.
Nishat said deluges that occur in July were more manageable than the flooding in April or September, in terms of particularly crop losses, so the ongoing flood could affect little the crop, other than some quantum of vegetables and Aman seedbeds.
“Now only jute and Aus paddy are there in the field. Jute is almost mature to be harvested and Aus can grow to keep pace with the height of water level,” he added.
But he feared the COVID-19 pandemic to have appeared as an extra threat for the people in river shoals as asked to analyze the extent of deluge risks this year.
“The ongoing flood squeezed the population density particularly in chars forcing a higher number of people to live in smaller areas exposing themselves to higher risks of the contagious disease,” Nishat said.
He said the pandemic relocated many people from urban to the flood-affected rural areas making the situation more complex.
Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC), however, predicted a deteriorating deluge scenario by the end of July with onrush of huge quantum of waters from upstream regions in India due to heavy precipitation in the upstream areas.
Nishat said a changed scenario caused by climate change, increased population and expanded infrastructure and cultivations in flood plains largely made ineffective the existing flood management schemes, requiring revised ones.
“The population has increased and they spread in chars (shoals) and vulnerable areas, a situation that requires us to rethink about the flood management,” he said.
Nishat said the population in Jamuna chars estimated to be as high as three lakh while the figure now was over 24 lakh meaning a higher number of people was now exposed to risks of flood damage.
He said the country simultaneously witnessed higher quantum of high yielding and flood-tolerant vegetables productions in the past several years but unplanned infrastructures, particularly the construction of roads in many areas, were causing prolonged waterlogging in flood seasons.
“The conventional flood management methods are not functioning effectively . . . BWDB (Bangladesh Water Development Board) should form a task force involving local and international experts to contain deluge damages redesigning the flood management system,” he said.
Nishat, who played the pivotal technical role in preparing the outline of the landmark 1996 Ganges Treaty with India, suggested the planning commission’s concerned member who led the drafting of the Delta Plan-2100 or the water resources secretary could be tasked to lead the task force.
The water expert defined “flood” as “inundation plus damage” declining to call mere inundations as floods unless the waters cause any major damage.
“It is a routine phenomenon that chars will be inundated during the monsoon and the char dwellers are very aware of it with preparedness to prevent losses . . . Do you call it a flood?” he said.
Nishat also questioned a UNDP estimation saying around 75 lakh people have been affected due to flooding this year as most homesteads of Jamuna’s chars were inundated.
“How they were affected while they know what happens when river water is inflated in monsoon every year and take required measures so they lose nothing due to the inundation,” he questioned.
But, Nishat said, collapse of flood protection embankments by gushing waters causes major damage, washing away homesteads and other infrastructures and damaging standing crops.
He also tended to critical of BWDB role in proper maintenance of flood control structures, repairing them in time to evade havocs in many areas every year while they routinely get allocation for embankment repair in April or May every year.
“They (BWDB) start repair works in May and then floodwater comes in June offsetting repair works . . . BWDB reports in July that we repaired the embankments but floodwater damaged it,” Nishat said regretting the practice.
He suggested that the estimate and tender for embankment repairs should be completed in July, August, September and October period.
“All preparation must be taken to this end in November, and the embankment repair works should be carried out during a four-month period – December, January, February and March,” Nishat said.
